BMKG predicts a Delayed Start to the rainy season in Bali due to El Niño. Rains to Commence November–December 2026
Kompas reports that the rainy season in Bali is predicted to arrive in 2026 later than normal. The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) forecasts that the 2026–2027 rainy season will not begin until November or December 2026.
”In general, the start of the 2026–2027 rainy season in the Bali region is predicted to begin in November 2026 for three Seasonal Zones (ZOM)—representing 15 percent of Bali’s land mass, and in December 2026 for seventeen ZOM, or 85 percent of the Island,” said Aminudin Al Roniri, Head of the Bali Class II Climatology Station, on Monday, 29 September 2026.
According to Roniri, 100 percent of Bali’s seasonal zones are predicted to experience a delayed start to the rainy season. Areas predicted to enter the rainy season earlier, in November, include Banjar, Sukasada, Baturiti, Pupuan, Petang, and Payangan. Meanwhile, most other areas in Bali are predicted to enter the rainy season only in December 2026.
Aminudin said this situation requires preparation, as a delayed rainy season can affect various sectors, especially in areas that depend on water availability and in disaster-prone regions. Influenced by El Niño, Trayi Budi Samantu, a forecaster at the Bali Climatology Station, explained that the delayed rainy season is linked to El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean.
”The delay in the rainy season is indeed due to global factors—specifically the activity of El Niño, characterized by warming in the eastern Pacific Ocean, while parts of the waters in eastern Indonesia are simultaneously cooling,” said Trayi. These sea surface temperature conditions affect rain cloud formation over Indonesian territory.
Typically, the rainy season in Bali begins between October and December. However, for the 2026–2027 season, the onset is predicted to be delayed by approximately two to three months in several areas. Trayi stated that this year’s rainy season is expected to last about four months, extending until April 2027. According to him, a shorter rainy season does not necessarily mean lower rainfall; instead, it could bring high-intensity rainfall concentrated in a shorter time period. “The rainfall will accumulate over that brief period, creating a strong possibility of higher rainfall intensity,” he added.
More About El Niño
El Niño is a Spanish term that literally translates as “the Christ Child.” In meteorological terms, El Niño refers to a warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures, in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
The low-level surface easterly winds, which normally prevail from east to west along the equator, will weaken or, in some cases, start blowing in the other westerly direction. El Niño recurs irregularly, from two years to a decade, and no two events are exactly alike. El Niño events can disrupt normal weather patterns globally.
Related Links
Bali’s Chilly Night Temperatures to Persist Until August
Breaking: Mid-Feb Flash Flooding Blamed for 76 Disaster Sites Across Bali.
Poor Land Use Policies Blamed for Bali’s Floods
Stay Informed on Bali Tourism-Related News: Subscribe to Bali Update
